America is nearing its one-year anniversary of the 2024 presidential elections, which means midterms are a popular topic. The current political climate can feel tough, like every single day is a challenge to survive – but it can feel more doable when breaking up Trump’s second presidential term. We are now exiting the grace period that accompanied his return to office, and we are returning to a political reality that offers hope. This is also the time when potential presidential candidates begin making moves, giving us insight into what 2028 will bring.
In normal presidential cycles, presidents are judged greatly based on what they accomplish within their first 100 days of office. All presidents make huge moves in this period – more than they will throughout the rest of their term. After that, presidents traditionally make very little progress on their campaign promises until they reach their second consecutive term. Political historians point to the second consecutive term as a major milestone since that is the minimum amount of time presidents need to see policy and economic change, since most of these aspects are slow-changing. It’s widely agreed that Trump inherited Obama’s economy for the entirety of his first presidency, Trump constantly misattributing his own influence on the growing economy that he eventually ruined and handed off to Biden.
The first 100 days of office bring the most changes. Trump dismissed the notion as being a milestone when he entered his second term (likely because he failed to make his second term consecutive), but it’s easy to see the change in pacing between today and March. Those early months were accompanied by a barrage of executive orders, proclamations, and press releases from the administration. Today, we’re seeing remarkably fewer policy changes as Trump tries to manage foreign affairs with Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and Palestine while avoiding the growing Epstein problem at home.
Trump just finished his 200th day in office this past week. This November brings minor elections to the ballot – like mayoral elections, city councils, and county boards. November also marks the midterm campaign season since every seat in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot in 2026. Midterms present the opportunity for Republicans to continue their reign of oppression and terror or for Democrats to re-seize the legislature, barring Trump from any significant advancements. Trump’s self-proclaimed Red Wave was a midterm failure in 2022 when the GOP failed to turn the Democrat-controlled Congress over. Since elections take more than one day to campaign over, politicians begin hitting the trails and speaking at events around now in preparation for midterms.
Despite the next presidential election being three years away, this is the period when political scientists start predicting who will toss their name in the ring for the presidency. Unlike other electoral races, there are no official deadlines for official campaign submissions – but it is generally agreed that officially running as soon as possible boosts your chances of securing votes since it cements your presence. The following is a list of high-profile individuals being watched right now because they’re performing many of the hallmark moves presidential candidates do before officially campaigning for the presidency.
First: An Author’s Note
Candidates running with the GOP have several disadvantages compared to Democrats and third-party candidates. First, they absolutely do not want to upset Donald Trump.
Trump is notoriously a poor-tempered man, obsessed with his public image, and is infamous for how quickly he is to throw out demeaning insults when he feels he has been slighted. The Republican Party has devoted itself to him, for better and worse, and there are visible inner-party lines between MAGA devotees, traditional Republicans, Elon-affiliated corpos, the far-right, and moderates. Altogether, the GOP is exceedingly fractured. However, Trump’s official stamp of approval on a candidate still holds massive weight because politicians fear facing his disapproval.
This hinders GOP presidential candidates since publicly campaigning while Trump is still in office would cause an upset. Trump finally stated he believes JD Vance should be the next GOP candidate – but Vance and all other potentials haven’t come forward since doing so would take away from Trump’s glorious spotlight.
Secondly, the next GOP candidate has to commit to cleaning up Trump’s mess. Trump is following the prophecy given by political scientists who warned that every other president to serve a second non-consecutive term ruined their legacy. Trump’s approval rate is already plummeting just 200 days in office, sitting currently at 53%. Inflation continues to rise, and stocks and trade are suffering due to economic instability caused by Trump’s tariff threats. The Latino population that voted for him is prosecuted by ICE, regardless of whether they are US citizens, as they watch MAGA create Alligator Alcatraz. Trump threatens land war with long-time allies and fails to bring about the peace he promised between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Israel and Palestine. He refuses to publish the Epstein files that he campaigned for years on. Regret is seizing the general population as moderates remember how much they hated Trump’s first term. Trump’s image deteriorates as the world remembers his increasing age and health issues, despite how much Trump pointed out that Biden’s age made him unable to lead the country. And all of these will exponentially worsen – we are only 200 days into Trump’s term.
Donald Trump (Again)
He was originally elected as an outsider, a businessman in a world of politicians who promised to bring the economy back in line. Of course, Donald Trump is more of a career con man than a successful business owner, and he’s no longer an outsider to politics.
The 22nd Amendment came about in 1951, adding explicit limitations on the amount of time a president can serve in office to the United States Constitution. It’s a hard rule: No one can serve more than two full terms as president. No person of sound mind or clean conscience would even consider testing it. Donald Trump is not a traditional president. His career has thrived off negative attention – and he’s openly considered breaking the Constitution to serve a third term.
Historical Context: The 22nd Amendment was created in the 1950s as a direct result of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s four terms. While nearly all presidents before FDR had followed George Washington’s two-term policy, it wasn’t an official rule. Congress created the 22nd Amendment in 1951, shortly after FDR’s death, since even though the public loved FDR enough to legitimately vote him into office four times, an extensive reign felt too similar to monarchies and dictatorships, holding the potential for presidential power to become too concentrated in one administration.
Can Donald Trump legally and legitimately serve a third presidential term? No. The only way for Trump to legitimately serve a third term would require Congress to propose, pass, and ratify a new amendment to the Constitution – and the US House and Senate are far too polarized to accomplish any amendment, much less one in direct service to Trump.
Do Republicans want to pass a new amendment to allow Trump to serve continuously? Yeah. It’s somewhere on their list of ways to lick Trump’s boots, BUT there is zero chance for this to become reality since the GOP lacks the votes to force amendment-level changes… for now.
Political scientists theorize two other ways Donald Trump could serve a third term, but neither is legitimate. One is undeniably worse, but both spell a devastating end to democracy in the United States.
The “less bad” route would require a candidate aligned with Trump (which is most, although not all, of the GOP) to be elected officially as president. The 22nd Amendment bars Trump from ever serving again as president – but it doesn’t prevent him from being Vice President or holding other roles in the White House.
In this instance, Trump would serve unofficially through a puppet, which we have already seen as possible through Elon Musk’s short reign, using Trump as a puppet to serve in the Oval Office until their public breakup. Trump has already vocalized he’d like to explore this route with someone like JD Vance as the presidential candidate, but most GOP candidates would most likely allow Trump to rule through them to appeal to their frenzied base. The other side of this route is that Trump is an egomaniac and a reality television star at his core. This route requires Trump to share the spotlight with the official president – which might work for weak-willed and mild candidates like Vance, but is capable of blowing up with strong personalities like Musk.
This route is “less bad” because it’s technically legal. The Constitution only states Trump can’t serve again as president, but there are no restrictions on other roles he can serve in. However, it still labels America as no longer a democracy to the greater world – even if Trump shared the spotlight and kept to a reserved role, having a puppet president serving on Trump’s behalf looks like a dictatorship.
The other route that leads to an extended Trump regime would entail Trump using military force to hold the presidency hostage. There are protocols that require the previous president to leave office once a new one has been elected and sworn in – but how could that be enforced if Trump refuses to comply? Trump is already doing many of the same actions traditional dictators do, like getting rid of military personnel who aren’t fully loyal to him. The president controls the military, and Trump hasn’t thrown out the idea of using the US military to protect his position if voted out.
A military coup by Trump is the “worst” option since doing so will label the United States as a dictatorship in black-and-white. And while dictatorships are never forever, they can hold power for extensive periods of time and cause insurmountable damage.
JD Vance
Officially, Vance hasn’t said whether he will be running for president in 2028. That being said, it’s assumed he will: Vance is currently Donald Trump’s favorite, and Trump has given Vance his endorsement to be the GOP runner. Despite this, Vance has told the media it is “way too early” to consider a 2028 bid – likely out of fear that openly accepting the endorsement or affirming the rumors would come across as lacking devotion to Trump.
With Trump’s endorsement and his current position as Vice President, Vance is poised to become heir to the MAGA movement. Trump has stated he believes Vance should fill his shoes, but it’s worth remembering that Trump’s favor is volatile since just a few months ago, Elon Musk would have had Trump’s endorsement as the next president.
Note: Elon Musk is NOT on this list. He cannot serve as President, no matter how badly he wants to. While Elon is technically a US citizen, only US-born citizens are eligible to run. Due to Elon being naturalized and originally from South Africa, he is barred from becoming president beyond befriending a legitimate president to use as a puppet.
The attention from Trump giving Vance his stamp of approval has been great for Vance’s image. Out of all the predicted 2028 candidates, Vance is polling the highest. But those numbers don’t equate to anything meaningful yet – in contrast to the Democrats, Vance is really the only projected candidate. He has had the most media attention from the last election cycle, putting him in a better position than other GOP candidates. On the other end of the political spectrum, Democrats won’t have comparable candidates until we approach the election season and candidates are in the thick of their campaigning. Vance is getting widespread attention at Trump’s side, speaking at events and ensuring he stays relevant. Democrats and other GOP candidates won’t be given this exposure for at least another year (if not longer).
However, JD Vance has downsides the GOP will have to consider if they choose to make him their 2028 candidate. Trump picked Vance as his VP because he was timid, mild-mannered, and able to sit in his shadow as a yes-man when Pence failed to do so during the January 6th coup. Even now, Vance fails to make good impressions amongst the public – he’s been clowned on for his looks, values, and politics ever since he was named for the VP ticket. He won’t be able to handle the MAGA movement’s need for a strong personality, and he won’t be able to fill Trump’s shoes. At his core, Vance isn’t likable. He isn’t someone people want to root for, he’s too timid to express his actual platform, and he somehow comes across as faker than Trump. Without Trump in front of him, Vance will not be able to keep the GOP together. He isn’t a leader.
Ron DeSantis
The Florida Governor, most known for his “Don’t Say Gay” anti-LGBTQIA+ laws, was forced to drop out of the 2024 election when Trump picked Vance to be his VP. There was never any public gossip on what happened between Trump and DeSantis, but DeSantis didn’t take well to being turned down for Vance.
After dropping out of the 2024 race, DeSantis made moves signaling his desire to run again, speaking at conventions and events to remain in the public eye even if he’s overshadowed by Vance’s office. Compared to other GOP candidates, DeSantis is the most outwardly anti-LGBTQIA+ and uses his forced successes of conservative legislation in a gerrymandered Florida as evidence that homophobia is in. The GOP has put tons of money into anti-transgender propaganda – but the American public still doesn’t agree with DeSantis’ core policies. His other “grand” policies are all related to banning abortion, but polls clearly show that isn’t popular with American voters either.
If he relies on his current policies to act as his primary motivator for voters, he has no chance of winning the presidency. When DeSantis got sidelined by Trump for Vance, his political career was considered over – even if he goes down fighting.
Nikki Haley
She was the only other major Republican candidate that survived the Iowa caucuses alongside Trump in 2024. In 2017, Haley left her office as South Carolina Governor to serve as the US Ambassador to the United Nations during Trump’s first term. As an Indian American, she ruffled feathers and became the GOP’s first female presidential candidate to win a primary – although she was forced to drop out after losing nearly all of the Super Tuesday contests to Trump.
Haley encompasses the traditional GOP, which is why she performed better in 2024 than Vivek Ramaswamy. She’s more white-passing, and she identifies as Christian despite her immigrant parents’ Sikh upbringing. She positions herself as a Reagan-aligned conservative in a political climate filled with Trump yes-men.
But can Nikki Haley win the 2028 presidency? While possible, it’s unlikely. She doesn’t have Trump’s endorsement like Vance, and she’s even more removed from current politicians than DeSantis since she hasn’t held any official offices since she resigned as ambassador in 2018.
Glenn Youngkin
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is both a longtime member of the GOP and a businessman. He’s garnered attention from the media due to headlining in Iowa last month, which is the traditional launch point for presidential campaigns. Candidates measure their audiences and begin campaigns in Iowa due to its caucuses.
Youngkin’s term as governor has focused on Trump’s war on DEI, causing Youngkin to spend considerable effort purging “divisive concepts” from both K-12 classrooms and higher education. He is allied with the GOP’s insiders, like the Heritage Foundation (and co-writers of Project 2025).
Unlike many other Republican candidates, Youngkin lacks baggage. He doesn’t have Vance, DeSantis, or even Haley’s exposure, so Youngkin can better position himself as a new face amongst many others who are running after failed campaigns for the presidency. Of course, that lack of exposure also harms Youngkin since voters may pass him for well-known names or candidates whose platforms they know well.
Tucker Carlson
Most known for the Tucker Carlson Show, Carlson has been described as “the most influential voice in right-wing media, without a close second.” He has touted Trumpism for years, pushing white grievance politics on Fox News while feeding manosphere influencers like Andrew Tate and Joe Rogan scraps to publish. Like Trump, Carlson is a face the American public knows well – and he’s never even entered politics.
In 2023, Carlson came under fire when his text messages leaked during Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News Network that led to a $787 million settlement. In the messages, Carlson shows his true colors as an entertainer first and not a true Trump supporter. In regard to what he thought of Trump’s first term, Carlson wrote, “We’re all pretending we’ve got a lot to show for it, because admitting what a disaster it’s been is too tough to digest. But come on. There really isn’t an upside to Trump.” He’s an entertainment journalist that Fox viewers take too seriously – which is what led to the eventual lawsuit that Fox settled and fired Carlson over. Carlson knew the stories he told on air were false, purposely riling up misinformed viewers based around Trump’s far-right agenda because it sold. He lamented in leaked texts how much he despised Trump despite publicly endorsing him on Fox – Fox News thrives on grifting, and Trump is the best grifter in modern history. In other words, Trump forced an unofficial marriage between his legacy and Fox News. When news on Trump sells so well, Carlson had no choice but to devote his nightly coverage to Trump.
Could Carlson grab the presidency? Since his removal from Fox News, Carlson has attempted to relaunch his show on Twitter/X and managed to rework his weekly commentary podcast – and he’s used the space to fester the same conspiracy stories as Alex Jones, interviewing “amateur historians” to endorse Holocaust denial on air. Compared to other candidates, Carlson has a strong personality that MAGA devotees obsess over, which is why his show on Fox News did so well. If Trump gives up his throne, Carlson is perhaps the closest fit.
Despite this, Carlson will face challenges. If he decides to campaign for 2028, he will most definitely butt heads with Trump and traditionalists within the GOP. Trump has already named Vance as his successor, and there’s no way for Trump to rule from behind Carlson like he would Vance. And while Carlson may be able to dish out conspiracy theories and insults great on air, he’s not Trump.
Tim Scott
Before entering politics in 1995, Scott worked in financial services – but he was given the spotlight when then-Governor Nikki Haley appointed Scott as South Carolina’s senator after Jim DeMint’s resignation. He had a short campaign for the 2024 presidency, but dropped out due to exceptionally low polling numbers.
In 2019, Tim Scott signaled that he plans to retire from politics soon since he’s tired of Congress, stating that his 2022 election was his final campaign. Since Senators serve six-year terms, his seat won’t be available for reelection until 2029. That doesn’t mean Scott won’t consider running in 2028 – he has the option to vacate his seat if he were to win the presidency, similar to Barack Obama vacating Illinois’ Senate seat in 2008. Overall, though, a second presidential campaign wouldn’t work in Scott’s favor since he wouldn’t be bringing anything new despite facing many of the same opponents.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Elon Musk might not be able to run for president, but Vivek Ramaswamy can. He’s been compared to Musk due to being a biotech pharma CEO and writing a flurry of books like Woke Inc, Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back to Excellence, Capitalist Punishment, and Truths: The Future of America First.
Similar to Nikki Haley, Ramaswamy is an American-born son of Indian immigrants. He touts himself as an American nationalist, BUT unlike Haley, he still identifies as non-Christian and adheres to his family’s Hindu faith. Some political scientists theorize Ramaswamy’s failed 2024 campaign was due to his populist ideals being too similar to Trump’s, failing to offer anything new like Haley did as a GOP traditionalist. Others argue Ramaswamy lost followers due to being less digestible for the American public as a darker-skinned Indian American man. Had he succeeded in 2024, Ramaswamy could have been the United States’ first non-Christian president.
Ramaswamy also has a strong personality, but voters disliked his debate style and viewed him as too aggressive during the last campaign cycle. He’s vocal about his positions against “COVIDism,” critical race theory, abortion, and “gender ideology” – and he lost major points when he declared he would raise the voting age to 25 and sought to end birthright citizenship. Due to similar business ventures, Ramaswamy benefits from the same exploitative work visa programs as Musk, which is why their politics get along so well. However, Ramaswamy and Musk’s politics seek to bring in as much cheap foreign labor as possible irk traditional conservatives against immigration.
Marco Rubio
Like DeSantis, Marco Rubio originally came from Florida as a Senator until he was picked by Donald Trump to serve as Secretary of State. Rubio has campaigned for the presidency since 2016, when he originally lost to Trump during the Republican primaries. As a Cuban American, Rubio was described by many as an unofficial secretary of state for Latin Americans during Trump’s first term – although his support amongst Latino Americans will waver under continued attacks by ICE.
Marco Rubio is the alternative heir to the MAGA movement. Trump is keeping Rubio close like Vance, purposely pitting them against each other to compete for his endorsement. According to White House insiders quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Trump told both Rubio and Vance, “Which one of you is going to be at the top of the ticket? I used to think it would be Vance-Rubio, but maybe it will be Rubio-Vance.”
Currently, Rubio isn’t polling as well as Vance – Trump recently stated he approved of Vance running in 2028, putting Rubio in the backseat. However, both Vance and Rubio have more of Trump’s support than folks like DeSantis. Rubio has a better grasp on foreign affairs, but he doesn’t have a remarkably better personality than Vance. These qualities were exemplified during the 2016 election, which Donald Trump brought to the public’s attention when he barraged Rubio with insults like all his other competitors on stage.
Greg Abbott
Texas Governor Greg Abbott constantly hits national headlines due to Texas’s constant troubles – like natural disasters, poor energy systems, immigration, abortion laws, and restrictions on gender-affirming care. Most recently, Abbott has gained attention from Texas Democrats leaving the House to prevent deep partisan gerrymandering.
Abbott has served as Texas Governor since 2015, making him the longest-serving incumbent governor in the United States. He’s more of a traditional conservative, focused mostly on immigration issues, followed by law enforcement budgets, gun laws, and abortion access. In a state that is progressively becoming less conservative, Abbott has tried to remain in the background compared to louder names like Ted Cruz. Unlike other candidates on this list, Abbott hasn’t actually tried to run for the presidency, which is why he would be a natural fit to try in 2028.
Honorable Mentions
Donald Trump Jr.
Steve Bannon
Ted Cruz
Tulsi Gabbard
Matt Gaetz
Rand Paul
Brian Kemp
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kristi Noem
Sarah Huckabee Sanders